Entering the 2025 election year, here are the candidates to watch

We have now entered 2025, the year of the next municipal election.

2025 will also be the year of the next federal election –– who knows how much oxygen that will suck out of the room. Though every day an early election call grows more and more certain, there still exists the possibility it might happen on the very same day as the municipal election.

I'll continue keeping track of who's declared as a candidate on this site so you don't have to.

With ten months to go, it's still early, but here's some insight into how the field is shaping up.

Mayor

We still don't know what the mayoral race will look like, because the incumbent, Amarjeet Sohi has not declared his intentions yet.

The only candidate who has been making noise and campaigning is Tim Cartmell.

He'll be hoping for a head-to-head race with the incumbent Amarjeet Sohi.

He's starting his own party, the as-of-yet-unnamed "Tim Cartmell Party". No one has publicly signalled an intention to join up.

The biggest risk to his electoral chances are more candidates declaring as Mayor. If Sohi decides to run again, he's unlikely to have a significant challenger from the left. But on the right, Tony Caterina has already declared his intention to run –– don't expect him to be the only one.

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In the northwest ward formerly represented by Andrew Knack, who announced he was stepping down late last year, the field is still wide open.

The only candidate declared so far is Diana Steele a past mayoral also-ran who cleared less than 1% of the vote.

However, Andrew Knack has indicated that he will be endorsing a candidate in his ward, so we should expect a high-quality competitive candidate to be declaring early this year.

O-day’min

The downtown ward represented by current councillor Anne Stevenson will be one to watch this election.

The 2021 race was tight, with a wide field. Stevenson only won with just over a quarter of the vote. As incumbents go, that makes her vulnerable.

The downtown ward has also borne the significant brunt of a downturned COVID economy, a sharp rise in houselessness, and the drug poisoning crisis.

The first challenger so far is Anand Pye, who has worked in lobbying for commercial real estate and developers. Expect for him to be pushing a "business" and "recovery" focused vision for Downtown.

Métis, papastew & Dene

These three wards have strong incumbents in Michael Janz, Ashley Salvador and Aaron Paquette –– I don't expect any of them to lose their seats in the upcoming election.

So far the only person to declare their intention to try is Caroline Matthews in ward Métis.

While Caroline had a strong showing, earning just over 20% of the vote in 2021, much of the vote on the right was already unified behind her candidacy.

Salvador, however, faced many challengers vying for the progressive vote and even had high profile NDP MLAs endorsing and campaigning for one of her opponents.

I wouldn't expect a large challenge from the left in Métis, making the seat likely a very safe hold for the incumbent.

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The weakest incumbent, by far, is Jennifer Rice.

I have made the argument in the past that she is perhaps the worst councillor this city has ever had. Given that she barely won –– a margin of only 39 votes –– and has gone on to have a record as that of an ineffective bully who wastes council's time by not understanding even the most basic tenets of her job, well... expect competition.

Funke Olokude represents a compelling challenger who I expect to pick up, in many ways, where Rhiannon Hoyle left off in the last election. Including the most obvious, she's a black woman who might be able to accomplish what Hoyle was a mere 39 votes away from accomplishing last time: being elected as the first black woman to Edmonton City Council.

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Sarah Hamilton's ward will be fascinating to watch. She handily won the last election with over 44% of the vote, however the second-place-finisher Giselle General (who is also running again) took around 22%

General's campaign in 2021 was not a powerhouse. There wasn't significant resources nor extreme depth of electoral talent behind-the-scenes, and yet the achieved result was quite high for a first-timer.

That indicates that perhaps there is a latent demand for change in this ward. Online commentary is frequently frustrated at Hamilton's perceived absence from the ward. A sufficiently motivated candidate with a strong team and resources could pull off an upset here.

However, Sarah Hamilton will likely be the first candidate to join Tim Cartmell's party, and that may boost her profile against any potential right-wing challengers (like Derek Hlady in 2021, who took 18% of the vote).

Municipal Parties

Much consternation has been raised about municipal political parties and the effect they may have on the election.

Candidates within a political party are able to spend significantly more money in addition to having the party name listed on the ballot; it is a distinct advantage.

However, early signs show that strong, progressive incumbents are deciding not to form any slates or parties, which means that a progressive or left wing party is unlikely to surface.

On the conservative side, the two early parties TAP and PACE have merged, and are now just PACE. Two of the organizers of PACE have both declared their intentions to run as candidates.

In previous interviews, indicated that he had no intention of running as a candidate and just wanted to organize with PACE. The shift here may indicate that PACE is struggling to find candidates and excitement for their party.

And, of course, the elephant in the room is that Tim Cartmell is also launching a party, which would mean that PACE would either have to put up a Mayoral candidate to oppose Cartmell, or not run a full slate, which lowers the value of a party overall if not all voters can vote for it.

All told, it appears that in actual implementation, municipal parties are unlikely to have as outsized an effect as feared, simply because the electoral establishment within the city appears to be rejecting them.